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I want to elaborate on my previous post (The Christian Church in 2020 Part 1) which I posted on January 4. As I continued to research this question, I realized that the problem was much bigger than I thought, that Christianity in America is facing an “existential threat.” I mean this quite literally. Long-term trends suggest that in a century or less, Christianity could largely disappear in America. To see the future, look at the state of Christianity in Europe. A Pew Research Center Report examines Christianity in Europe and compares it with Christianity in America. The summary data are presented below. There are six data points for each of four questions. The most interesting are column 3 (W. European Christians) and column 6 (American unaffiliated). Take the last question “Do you believe in God with absolute certainty?” Only twenty-three percent of West European Christians do, while 27% of Americans who say they are unaffiliated with any church do as well. The answers for the other questions (except for attending religious services at least monthly), show the same result.
As summarized by Christianity Today
What is notable is how religious “nones” in the United States and Christians in Western Europe share similar beliefs.
- 27 percent of American “nones” say they believe in God with absolute certainty; only 23 percent of Western European Christians say the same.
- 13 percent of American “nones” say religion is “very important” in their lives; only 14 percent of Western European Christians say the same.
- 20 percent of American “nones” say they pray daily; only 18 percent of Western European Christians say the same.
Not only are European pews empty (only 22% of Europeans across 15 countries say they attend religious services monthly or more), but those who attend have strikingly post-Christian beliefs. The countries surveyed included both the traditional Protestant countries of Northern Europe (the UK, Scandinavia and the Netherlands), but also the Catholic countries of Europe (Austria, France. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland). Many of the “unaffiliated” Europeans have left their Christian faith. They were both baptized (median across countries is 67%) and raised Christian (median is 60%).
Would it be overstating the threat to say that Christianity in Western Europe today is where Christianity in America will be three or four decades from now? The chart below provides the data we need to compare Christianity in Western Europe with Christianity in America.
The following facts seem clear:
- Protestant countries in Western Europe have been post-Christian for at least four decades.
- Catholic countries have seen church attendance decline since 1990; it is now declining by 2.25% per year. At that rate it would reach Protestant levels by 2040.
- Church attendance in the United States is higher than both groups of Western European countries but it is declining at over 4% per year. At that rate attendance would decline to Western European Protestant levels in 20 years.
What has happened in Europe and the United States to threaten the future of Christianity so dramatically? A number of explanations are possible, and many are plausible. There is no one single explanation, but the overriding issue is the clash between Christianity (and religion more generally) and the modern world. I would like to offer the following explanations:
- The Christian faith is seen as being incompatible with reason; there is a long history of this clash, beginning well before the enlightenment. Today, we live in an age where science is both exalted and seen as at odds with faith.
- This issue brings up the question of the role of the Bible in faith. What does it mean to say that the Bible is the inspired Word of God? What’s the difference between infallible and inerrant? What do we do when the Bible seems to contradict the widely accepted findings of science, particularly the theory of evolution?
- The Christian church is seen as hypocritical, worldly and institutionally flawed. There is much truth in this, particularly given the sexual abuse in both Catholic and Protestant churches, and the worldliness of many churches today.
- Christian beliefs are at odds with contemporary morality, especially sexual morality; being an active Christian means rejecting the behaviors of the world, and many are unwilling to do so.
- Evangelical churches have aligned themselves with President Trump and this appears to contradict many Christian values, especially those calling for Christians to love their neighbors.
- Since the time of Job, a fundamental sticking point that makes belief in God difficult for many, is the fact that there seems to be no justice in the universe. Good people suffer and for many that calls into doubt the idea of a loving, and all-powerful God.
To summarize, the Christian Church is in retreat in 21st century America. If current trends continue, it may become completely irrelevant by mid-century. There are many reasons for this, some fixable, some not. Subsequent posts will discuss each of these explanations in some detail, and offer some suggestions for what the Church can do to reverse this march to oblivion.